The 151st Kentucky Derby faces high expectations following last year’s thrilling three-way finish, presenting a challenging handicapping scenario. The standout favorite, Journalism, boasts the best Beyer speed rating in the field at 108. However, his wins came against small fields, raising concerns about how he will manage the larger competition of 19 horses in the Derby.
This year’s race features numerous speed horses, particularly among the inside contenders, which can lead to an unsustainable pace. Such dynamics may favor deep closers like Sandman and Sovereignty, who could capitalize on any pace collapse.
Bob Baffert, a prominent trainer returning after a ban, enters with Citizen Bull, who faces challenges from the No. 1 post position. Despite these obstacles, his past successes suggest he should not be underestimated.
Additionally, with Rodriguez withdrawn, Baeza joins as a strong contender. His recent performance against Journalism indicates he could thrive if others falter.
Japanese horses have increasingly made their mark, with Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe in the mix this year. While Luxor Cafe remains relatively untested against American competitors, his impressive racing history raises questions about adaptability.
The narrative surrounding Lonnie Briley, a longtime trainer with modest background, centers on his horse, Coal Battle, who recently achieved a remarkable winning streak. This seems to symbolize a defiance of expectations, offering an inspiring storyline alongside the race’s competitive nature.
Ultimately, the race remains unpredictable, making it intriguing for fans and bettors alike as they await the unfolding drama. My pick, although not yet decided, will be shared on race day.
Note: The image is for illustrative purposes only and is not the original image of the presented article.
