The recent massacre has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, leading to a series of diplomatic retaliations, including visa cancellations, the recall of diplomats, and the suspension of a vital water-sharing treaty. India has also closed its border with Pakistan, while both nations have engaged in gunfire exchanges along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who previously claimed that the situation in Kashmir had stabilized, has promised retribution, convening a security committee meeting with top military and security officials. Experts suggest that Modi’s tough stance is also meant to address domestic audiences, making military action likely in response to terrorist attacks. Srinath Raghavan, a professor at Ashoka University, stated that historical patterns indicate the Indian military has the discretion to decide on targets and methods for military operations, effectively bypassing government constraints.
Tensions have further intensified following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, a move that experts contend has previously acted as a deterrent to violence between the two nuclear-armed countries. U.S. President Donald Trump noted that India and Pakistan would resolve their issues independently, acknowledging the enduring tension between them.
Essentially, the decisions regarding military responses in India have typically been reserved for the elected government, yet the operational control lies with the military, which has significant latitude in executing actions without immediate government oversight. This dynamic suggests an environment where military responses may escalate in the wake of ongoing provocations.
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